Another disappointing day yesterday with a loss of around 6 points – let's hope for a more constructive day today to put the winter blues behind us.
14:15 Southwell – Special Cuvee
14:45 Southwell – Sairaam
15:45 Southwell - Home
Friday, 8 January 2010
Thursday, 7 January 2010
Past Posting
I recently joined a rating service that also provided selections for the day’s racing. I’d looked at the ratings before when they were free and they looked promising. That, allied to the fact that some of the selections advised had made a nice profit prompted me to give them a go.
Let’s get the good stuff over with. The ratings themselves provided winners from the top two and certainly helped to sort the wheat from the chaff. What I did have an issue with was the way that they changed their selections on an almost weekly basis. Let’s explain further.
When I joined there were two different selection types. After a few day’s of losers both of the selection systems (we’ll call them that) were dropped and replaced with another two different systems, because they’d shown a profit (apparently). A few more days losing and they were dropped for a single system (which had show profits in the past). When these also failed to provide any reasonable degree of winners I cancelled my subscription.
Now, I don’t know how this system is doing because the results are no longer advertised on the Web site, but I have noticed that a different system is being promoted because it made good profits. Unfortunately, this was never put forward as an idea when I was a member even though the results and profits take my subscription period into account – the point being that these have obviously been reverse engineered.
So, in the seven or eight weeks since I have been involved or tracked this provider of information there has been at least six different betting methods promoted, and as each one failed a new one was introduced – by back-fitting results.
An additional worry is the fact that selections were proofed to an independent source, but everything stopped on the 15th December and there is no way that any results are available from the period onward.
To me, this is clearly a case of someone having created a system had some success, started proofing, but when things went pear-shaped simply began to reverse engineer selections (after the event) to attract new subscribers.
I will be interested to see if the ‘system’ that made good profits last month is advertised at the end of this month as having made a profit. Another aspect that concerns me – not just about this but about all rating providers is that they are always keen to promote days when the top two ratings (sometimes extended to the top three)‘went through the card’. On checking these are usually days when all the fancied horses went in (which pretty much ends up the same as backing the first and second favourite).
The caveat here is before joining any selection service ask for proof of ongoing profits based on the same selection criteria, and if they can’t provide this then walk away.
Let’s get the good stuff over with. The ratings themselves provided winners from the top two and certainly helped to sort the wheat from the chaff. What I did have an issue with was the way that they changed their selections on an almost weekly basis. Let’s explain further.
When I joined there were two different selection types. After a few day’s of losers both of the selection systems (we’ll call them that) were dropped and replaced with another two different systems, because they’d shown a profit (apparently). A few more days losing and they were dropped for a single system (which had show profits in the past). When these also failed to provide any reasonable degree of winners I cancelled my subscription.
Now, I don’t know how this system is doing because the results are no longer advertised on the Web site, but I have noticed that a different system is being promoted because it made good profits. Unfortunately, this was never put forward as an idea when I was a member even though the results and profits take my subscription period into account – the point being that these have obviously been reverse engineered.
So, in the seven or eight weeks since I have been involved or tracked this provider of information there has been at least six different betting methods promoted, and as each one failed a new one was introduced – by back-fitting results.
An additional worry is the fact that selections were proofed to an independent source, but everything stopped on the 15th December and there is no way that any results are available from the period onward.
To me, this is clearly a case of someone having created a system had some success, started proofing, but when things went pear-shaped simply began to reverse engineer selections (after the event) to attract new subscribers.
I will be interested to see if the ‘system’ that made good profits last month is advertised at the end of this month as having made a profit. Another aspect that concerns me – not just about this but about all rating providers is that they are always keen to promote days when the top two ratings (sometimes extended to the top three)‘went through the card’. On checking these are usually days when all the fancied horses went in (which pretty much ends up the same as backing the first and second favourite).
The caveat here is before joining any selection service ask for proof of ongoing profits based on the same selection criteria, and if they can’t provide this then walk away.
Hopeful for Racing
With all racing falling foul of the weather yesterday at least it didn’t cost us anything apart from a bit of wasted effort. Today both Lingfield and Kempton are off because the ambulances can’t get there. This leaves us (hopefully) with Southwell.
12:10 Southwell – Divertimenti
13:10 Southwell – Onceuponatime
14:10 Southwell – Honest Broker
15:10 Southwell – Bestowed
15:40 Southwell – Onemoreandstay
All of these look like they will meet the minimum price stipulation.
12:10 Southwell – Divertimenti
13:10 Southwell – Onceuponatime
14:10 Southwell – Honest Broker
15:10 Southwell – Bestowed
15:40 Southwell – Onemoreandstay
All of these look like they will meet the minimum price stipulation.
Wednesday, 6 January 2010
All Weather Racing off because of Weather
As we suspected yesterday the first race provided the winner, but at an unworkable price. Early in the morning it almost hit the 1.40 limit, but then was backed off the boards. Our second selection was a bit annoying. Although never likely to win it got running far too late and if it had got going a bit earlier could well have run into a place (but that’s life).
Due to the rather inclement weather we are stuck with one A/W meeting today (the A/W at Lingfield having been called off due to snow – which makes you wonder why it’s called ‘All Weather’).
15:50 Kempton – Ajjaadd
17:20 Kempton – Desert Vision
17:50 Kempton – Red Somerset
Let’s hope we can start the ball rolling with these.
Due to the rather inclement weather we are stuck with one A/W meeting today (the A/W at Lingfield having been called off due to snow – which makes you wonder why it’s called ‘All Weather’).
15:50 Kempton – Ajjaadd
17:20 Kempton – Desert Vision
17:50 Kempton – Red Somerset
Let’s hope we can start the ball rolling with these.
Tuesday, 5 January 2010
Tuesday at Southwell
A disappointing start to the new idea with just one placed selection from the three, and a Loss of just under 9pts (for me at least). Let's see if we can do a bit better today.
Again, the weather has left us just one A/W meeting to play with, this time at Southwell.
13:40 – Elusive Warrior
14:40 – Bright Sparky
With the first of these unlikely to make the minimum odds stipulation of 1.40 in the Place market on Betfair, it looks like we will be left with a single selection.
Again, the weather has left us just one A/W meeting to play with, this time at Southwell.
13:40 – Elusive Warrior
14:40 – Bright Sparky
With the first of these unlikely to make the minimum odds stipulation of 1.40 in the Place market on Betfair, it looks like we will be left with a single selection.
Sunday, 3 January 2010
Monday Selections
With the start of the New Year I thought it would be interesting to start a new idea that I've spent the last couple of months studying. As with any new project there are no guarantees, although the back-testing looks promising.
What we are attempting to do is build up a small bank in a controlled manner with as little risk as possible, and to that end we will be staking in both the Win and Place markets on Betfair in the proportion of 1:4 – 1pt Win and 4pts Place on each selection.
The idea is to pick those horses that have a strong chance of placing and (at least) a reasonable chance of winning. Although individual risk management is up to the individual, I would be ultra-cautious and allow a bank of 200 points. Thus a £200 bank would mean a stake of £1 Win and £4 Place on each selection. We would also consider stopping betting after a reasonable profit has been made for the day. This and levels of staking are up to the individual and we are not responsible if things go belly-up.
There is one final rule, and that is only bet when you can get at least 1.40 on the selection in the Place market. That's it.
For today only the A/W at Wolverhampton has survived and we have three going for us:
16:35 Wolverhampton – Turn To Dreams
17:05 Wolverhampton – Itsthursdayalready
17:35 Wolverhampton – Join Up
What we are attempting to do is build up a small bank in a controlled manner with as little risk as possible, and to that end we will be staking in both the Win and Place markets on Betfair in the proportion of 1:4 – 1pt Win and 4pts Place on each selection.
The idea is to pick those horses that have a strong chance of placing and (at least) a reasonable chance of winning. Although individual risk management is up to the individual, I would be ultra-cautious and allow a bank of 200 points. Thus a £200 bank would mean a stake of £1 Win and £4 Place on each selection. We would also consider stopping betting after a reasonable profit has been made for the day. This and levels of staking are up to the individual and we are not responsible if things go belly-up.
There is one final rule, and that is only bet when you can get at least 1.40 on the selection in the Place market. That's it.
For today only the A/W at Wolverhampton has survived and we have three going for us:
16:35 Wolverhampton – Turn To Dreams
17:05 Wolverhampton – Itsthursdayalready
17:35 Wolverhampton – Join Up
Apologies
I've been quiet for a couple of months due to some personal problems. The good news is that I've used some of my enforced free time to come up with what looks like a very good way to make consistent profits over the coming months. There will be more details on Monday along with the day's selections - assuming the weather doesn't intervene too badly.
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